Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.016376 0.018524 0.020849 0.023552 0.026611 0.029965 0.033924
2025-10-12 0.013137 0.016131 0.019646 0.024080 0.029529 0.036013 0.044325
2025-10-19 0.011410 0.014818 0.019048 0.024689 0.032025 0.041258 0.053788
2025-10-26 0.009904 0.013465 0.018091 0.024547 0.033342 0.044933 0.061416
2025-11-02 0.008805 0.012456 0.017388 0.024550 0.034709 0.048643 0.069281
2025-11-09 0.007783 0.011407 0.016478 0.024107 0.035324 0.051271 0.075769
2025-11-16 0.007153 0.010829 0.016142 0.024396 0.036943 0.055376 0.084656
2025-11-23 0.006491 0.010124 0.015534 0.024194 0.037767 0.058322 0.092003
2025-11-30 0.006112 0.009806 0.015460 0.024771 0.039789 0.063192 0.102680
2025-12-07 0.005481 0.009027 0.014598 0.024016 0.039621 0.064597 0.107907
2025-12-14 0.005010 0.008459 0.014013 0.023639 0.040002 0.066864 0.114675
2025-12-21 0.004531 0.007833 0.013276 0.022936 0.039760 0.068055 0.119678
2025-12-28 0.004387 0.007769 0.013478 0.023858 0.042391 0.074338 0.134120
2026-01-04 0.004189 0.007592 0.013473 0.024421 0.044441 0.079790 0.147588
2026-01-11 0.004016 0.007445 0.013503 0.025036 0.046624 0.085630 0.162238
2026-01-18 0.003746 0.007094 0.013137 0.024892 0.047388 0.088942 0.172429
2026-01-25 0.003522 0.006809 0.012865 0.024895 0.048417 0.092805 0.183971
2026-02-01 0.003258 0.006426 0.012379 0.024446 0.048529 0.094923 0.192254
2026-02-08 0.003110 0.006256 0.012282 0.024740 0.050114 0.099993 0.206842
2026-02-15 0.002916 0.005976 0.011949 0.024535 0.050676 0.103076 0.217610
2026-02-22 0.002824 0.005896 0.012004 0.025119 0.052891 0.109642 0.236183
2026-03-01 0.002597 0.005519 0.011431 0.024354 0.052227 0.110238 0.242063
2026-03-08 0.002428 0.005248 0.011055 0.023971 0.052336 0.112444 0.251598